Saturday, 13 June 2009

Wither Vix?


That's some downtrend, what next?
Collapse of options volatility has scuppered my expiry trade entry for friday, but market action was lacklustre, as it seems the clueless are running out of steam. Volume is declining, so like a good options trader I expect and actually enjoy a dropping market, mostly.
The disconnect with the real economy and ACTUAL data like real house prices, do not reflect any 'green shoots'.
The next crisis will likely be gov bonds being shunned, and an increasing mortgage rate giving rise to more foreclosures.
Employment is not picking up and the governments efforts to provide jobs, and to help people in mortgage difficulties have proved less than worthless.
The government will have to make massive cutbacks to the bloated army of civil servants, the tax take will be down, so quite how the economy can be moving out of recession looks a bit suspect to me.
Printing money works well until it doesn't, like the last debt bubble. I get the idea that there is a natural level of 'value' by that I mean consumption and overall quality of life, which is on a gentle slope upwards, but gets beyond itself and corrects-there may well be someone who plots such metrics and has a perfect model for trading the stockmarket. That person is not me!
Terminator Salvation is fun but while the plot lacks a degree of sense, the action is great-big nasty machines against soft squidgey people- quite what the machines want is not clear, but I'm steering clear of any appliances that show a modicum of ambition!

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