Sold 4650 calls for 33.5 this morning, caution advised as the Americans seem to be 'on something' again. This is after all the stockmarket that has been given a risk free multi billion $ injection. It reminds me of a space escalator, where the markets are leaving terra firma further and further behind, on a journey to the outer atmosphere. You look down and there's nothing below!
The US markets are still below their 200 Mas and if volumes are light today, it might be a good time to add to my short calls and buy some puts.
I note for the first time in several months the volume of puts now exceeds that of calls, and prices are starting to normalize- the volatility relationship is nearly back to 'sensible' to reflect that downside risk insurance should be more expensive than upside.
It's a wake up to me as I have never seen such a skew in call prices as we had recently, and should have taken that as the cue to go long.
Boat? Missed the? As per usual I fail to get on the big trends, it's not really how I trade, but also shows how hard it is to know which way the wind blows.
Option 'prices' should never be a barrier to a trade- if you have the conviction on a direction, just trade a spread*. In the very short term, intra day I reckon buying naked is ok, but I would only do that if I'd sold something else to pay for it!
* this is why I think covered warrants are such a ripoff, you cannot sell to open, and they are about 25% more expensive than exchange traded options.
Monday, 1 June 2009
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