Monday, 1 June 2009

Half Portion

Sold 4650 calls for 33.5 this morning, caution advised as the Americans seem to be 'on something' again. This is after all the stockmarket that has been given a risk free multi billion $ injection. It reminds me of a space escalator, where the markets are leaving terra firma further and further behind, on a journey to the outer atmosphere. You look down and there's nothing below!
The US markets are still below their 200 Mas and if volumes are light today, it might be a good time to add to my short calls and buy some puts.
I note for the first time in several months the volume of puts now exceeds that of calls, and prices are starting to normalize- the volatility relationship is nearly back to 'sensible' to reflect that downside risk insurance should be more expensive than upside.
It's a wake up to me as I have never seen such a skew in call prices as we had recently, and should have taken that as the cue to go long.
Boat? Missed the? As per usual I fail to get on the big trends, it's not really how I trade, but also shows how hard it is to know which way the wind blows.
Option 'prices' should never be a barrier to a trade- if you have the conviction on a direction, just trade a spread*. In the very short term, intra day I reckon buying naked is ok, but I would only do that if I'd sold something else to pay for it!
* this is why I think covered warrants are such a ripoff, you cannot sell to open, and they are about 25% more expensive than exchange traded options.

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