I allude to the pain of a wisdom tooth that decided to rebel and give me a sleepless monday night. Now last week I didn't see any trades and it was the first week of a 5 week month for options, so I was eagerly looking for a 4800/4300 combo.
Prices lined up on tuesday as I was enduring max pain and thanks to some serious painkillers I didn't know what day it was, so decided against trading. Dentist duly removed the shattered pieces of tooth.
Sod's law- the flippin' trade was a peach. I'm looking for the F to hit that key 4620 level again and try to capture a down move which would bring the old account bank into the black. Patience and a small tolerance of pain required, but this week is pretty much a write off for profits-though I have about 6 fx pairs on a watchlist and most days have paper traded- one tiny loser so far but averaging over 100 pips a day profit- which the spreadbetters would reduce to about 30 by my reckoning-so risk/reward is ugly. More work to be done there.
Thursday 30 July 2009
Saturday 25 July 2009
Wise Words of Price Headley
I recall him saying that he'd made more money sitting on his hands and doing nothing, than he had from trading. I did likewise on Thursday-watched the market go berserk in the afternoon, which forced me to rethink my levels.
Indecision?
No say I, as it is prudent if you have no clues to stay away- no point in guessing, when none of your parameters are met.
Thus now I'm looking at a possible combo -4800/4300 as I want to get that quickly into an iron condor. The risks of a big down day are at extremes now based on daily volatility. FTSE volumes are well down, so maybe this whole rally has been an illusion.
Those with the clout to buy the market to the moon are fully aware of the damage they have done, and there does seem to be an exodus of traders out of the stock market (which is clearly as bent as a nine bob note, but is tradeable sometimes), to foreign exchange.
I have been looking at this myself but it's unlikely I'll abandon my passion for options- but how long do people have to take a kicking, before they move on to a 'scum free level playing field'?
The forex market and attendant trading platforms and bits and bobs have been the new rock 'n' roll for many years now, and on the basis that it is too big to fiddle, continues to attract many new players. Early ( 6.30 a.m.) starts are de rigeur.
Now where's my trusty alarm clock?
Indecision?
No say I, as it is prudent if you have no clues to stay away- no point in guessing, when none of your parameters are met.
Thus now I'm looking at a possible combo -4800/4300 as I want to get that quickly into an iron condor. The risks of a big down day are at extremes now based on daily volatility. FTSE volumes are well down, so maybe this whole rally has been an illusion.
Those with the clout to buy the market to the moon are fully aware of the damage they have done, and there does seem to be an exodus of traders out of the stock market (which is clearly as bent as a nine bob note, but is tradeable sometimes), to foreign exchange.
I have been looking at this myself but it's unlikely I'll abandon my passion for options- but how long do people have to take a kicking, before they move on to a 'scum free level playing field'?
The forex market and attendant trading platforms and bits and bobs have been the new rock 'n' roll for many years now, and on the basis that it is too big to fiddle, continues to attract many new players. Early ( 6.30 a.m.) starts are de rigeur.
Now where's my trusty alarm clock?
Thursday 23 July 2009
Webinar wobbles
I was quite excited that I was able to watch archived webinar from Price Headley and Alex Elder, two trading greats.
While I learned, as always a bit from Alex and Price, the webinar itself was painful, and just shows we are a long way off getting these things sorted when TradeStation took itself off for a rest repeatedly, and mic volume was variable. Valuable lesson -make sure you have a back up plan in case the technology fails. Dr. Elder made some interesting comments however and his take on the market is ambiguous- like a good trader should hedge he reckoned to be wary of the bull and while on charts the signs of a drop were there, this rally may go a lot further. I think it may go sideways too, but that's an option trader's perspective.(and hope)
Seems the F is clueless without being told what to do by Goldman Sachs, I mean the US markets (oops!) but if we hit 4520 I'm looking to trade a combo- sell 4700 call to buy 4200 put for a credit, and depending on its outcome either leg into iron condor or if it's losing sell the puts and buy call spreads, or if it's a big winner just close it out. My price target is currently looking a bit feeble. Has the market run out of steroids just when I need it up a bit?
While I learned, as always a bit from Alex and Price, the webinar itself was painful, and just shows we are a long way off getting these things sorted when TradeStation took itself off for a rest repeatedly, and mic volume was variable. Valuable lesson -make sure you have a back up plan in case the technology fails. Dr. Elder made some interesting comments however and his take on the market is ambiguous- like a good trader should hedge he reckoned to be wary of the bull and while on charts the signs of a drop were there, this rally may go a lot further. I think it may go sideways too, but that's an option trader's perspective.(and hope)
Seems the F is clueless without being told what to do by Goldman Sachs, I mean the US markets (oops!) but if we hit 4520 I'm looking to trade a combo- sell 4700 call to buy 4200 put for a credit, and depending on its outcome either leg into iron condor or if it's losing sell the puts and buy call spreads, or if it's a big winner just close it out. My price target is currently looking a bit feeble. Has the market run out of steroids just when I need it up a bit?
Tuesday 21 July 2009
FX and Time out
As I decided to step back from options this week- as August is a 5 week month and volatility is not in favour of the seller currently, I thought it'd be interesting to have another look at forex, and while cable (pound/dollar) is the old warhorse, also looking at pound/swiss. Both described a perfect retrace to my famous moving average and proceeded to plummet for a trade of 100 pips.
This is the classic situation you get with trading- you see the first big winner and think you are a genius. Winning teaches us nothing, and there's no good reason why my method should work anyway- but it does. I know it is hard to trade this method but the time slot for these trades is really 7-9.30 a.m. so it may kill me to get up a bit earlier but I am intrigued that a higher time frame has made a world of difference, and the system still seems to hold.
Multiple income streams are the ideal. I'll start my takeaway porridge service next.
This is the classic situation you get with trading- you see the first big winner and think you are a genius. Winning teaches us nothing, and there's no good reason why my method should work anyway- but it does. I know it is hard to trade this method but the time slot for these trades is really 7-9.30 a.m. so it may kill me to get up a bit earlier but I am intrigued that a higher time frame has made a world of difference, and the system still seems to hold.
Multiple income streams are the ideal. I'll start my takeaway porridge service next.
Saturday 18 July 2009
Wrong- Ouch!
The indexes smashed up >6% in concert this week as banks' grubby profits soared-as of course they will being bulletproof and beyond the law.
I had sold 4300 calls on monday- F opened at 4127, and the index was up 60 then faded. My selling price for the 4300 calls was 12.5- well the price dropped to 8-9, and I was thinking that I have 20 years of stats that tell me that 4300 is a safe level.
The market was obviously hit by a freakin' tsunami of cash at about 3.30 on monday, and to quote a friend it was a 'key reversal day'.
While manipulation is how markets work to favour the few who have the funds to do such things, usually it is tradeable.
The fact that the world and his wife had spotted a head and shoulders formation on DOW seemed to wake up the sidelined cash, and the banksters duly waded in all guns blazing, ensuring max. pain for a great many.
Anyway I was the one thing I am not supposed to be - a forced buyer. The calls went to 93 as I closed out before expiry when it became apparent they were gunning for 4400.
So twice recently we have seen the market on the brink of a big down move, and magically it smashes up. It makes it impoossible to quantify risk, but it's not a problem to limit risk. I shall be looking at selling spreads in iron condors initially, but also looking at Xmas trees as credit trades.
Meanwhile http://www.zerohedge.com/article/max-keiser-goldman-sachs-are-scum
Max is my new hero- we all know the banks own Obama and Broon, so it is nauseating to see them pretend they wield any real power over the financial behemoths. Regulation? not in the banks' vocabulary.
I had sold 4300 calls on monday- F opened at 4127, and the index was up 60 then faded. My selling price for the 4300 calls was 12.5- well the price dropped to 8-9, and I was thinking that I have 20 years of stats that tell me that 4300 is a safe level.
The market was obviously hit by a freakin' tsunami of cash at about 3.30 on monday, and to quote a friend it was a 'key reversal day'.
While manipulation is how markets work to favour the few who have the funds to do such things, usually it is tradeable.
The fact that the world and his wife had spotted a head and shoulders formation on DOW seemed to wake up the sidelined cash, and the banksters duly waded in all guns blazing, ensuring max. pain for a great many.
Anyway I was the one thing I am not supposed to be - a forced buyer. The calls went to 93 as I closed out before expiry when it became apparent they were gunning for 4400.
So twice recently we have seen the market on the brink of a big down move, and magically it smashes up. It makes it impoossible to quantify risk, but it's not a problem to limit risk. I shall be looking at selling spreads in iron condors initially, but also looking at Xmas trees as credit trades.
Meanwhile http://www.zerohedge.com/article/max-keiser-goldman-sachs-are-scum
Max is my new hero- we all know the banks own Obama and Broon, so it is nauseating to see them pretend they wield any real power over the financial behemoths. Regulation? not in the banks' vocabulary.
Saturday 11 July 2009
Expiry week trade
Hope to pull in some fat premiums this week, and close out my long put spread for a good return.
I think I shall revise my views on buying spreads, and limit them to being an adjunct to my central methods, as it is a pain waiting until expiry week to see if the spread is worth anything- been here before, and the point of buying the spread is that you can sell naked options further out and pull in premium- when they become a debit trade, they are too painful.
I have not been in a position to trade combo's lately,but the market has not obliged.
I think I shall revise my views on buying spreads, and limit them to being an adjunct to my central methods, as it is a pain waiting until expiry week to see if the spread is worth anything- been here before, and the point of buying the spread is that you can sell naked options further out and pull in premium- when they become a debit trade, they are too painful.
I have not been in a position to trade combo's lately,but the market has not obliged.
Monday 6 July 2009
4200
The next key level 4200, has been violated, and unless the Chronic Investor have got it right with their 'Coppock' indicator, I think the rally is over and while the 'unseen hand' tries to keep the market aloft we may wobble around here for a few more days. thereafter I would expect to see some further drops and 4000 might be support.
More and more alarming stats are being trotted out each week and the media is doing a 'bang up' job of saying how great it is that the rate of disaster is slowing. House prices of course are constantly providing 'glimmers of hope' until you look at the real figures from the Land Registry. Imagine that- estate agents telling fibs about prices, or being elaborately over optimistic in a genial and charming way.
Currently sitting on my hands as my positions dictate no action.
More and more alarming stats are being trotted out each week and the media is doing a 'bang up' job of saying how great it is that the rate of disaster is slowing. House prices of course are constantly providing 'glimmers of hope' until you look at the real figures from the Land Registry. Imagine that- estate agents telling fibs about prices, or being elaborately over optimistic in a genial and charming way.
Currently sitting on my hands as my positions dictate no action.
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