I have recently been testing out the reality of volatility over its calculated value, and the FTSE according to Wolfram had a daily vol of 2.4% which meant that you'd expect 100 point moves on a daily basis. On thursday I was discussing this with friends and the apparent paucity of such events- well this week we've had 3 days of >100 point moves. Last week 2 days, and so on.
What this tells me is that I have a perception that is frequently wrong, and this was based on the performance of binary bets, to wit the ftse to stay in range ±100 on IG Index. I have tried to trade this as a sell for 90-95, when ftse is at parity at lunchtime, on the basis that it will move when the US opens- not by 100 but by enough to justify a small stake of 5-10, with the hope of getting 20.These have been dismal lately, and Fri morning I placed my first real money bet on the F staying within range- buying at 56. I closed out for a small profit, as I didn't want to be in the trade for non farm payrolls, and I was right to be out of it, as the F smashed up with the usual fervour of a 6 week old puppy only to drop back 50 points.
The moves happen they are tradeable, and I need to be a bit more 'on the ball'.
I'm not sure about any more upside on ftse, and stochastic may be signalling some doubts.
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