Saturday, 20 June 2009

The Stunned Mullet

I read about one of the posters on a well known UK financial website who used the above epithet to describe some investors he knew. This was in reaction to an article by a staff member who had explained why he was selling his Barclays shares.
All too often with people who buy shares, they cannot help but watch the prices and then get stressed out when the shares tank- which they always do. Sometimes they bounce back and that then causes further stress for these mullets- do they now sell and recoup their losses or hold on in case it goes higher?
No rules means no win.
Winners have rules.
A loser is a forced buyer or seller- a good trader will have losses but will not be a forced buyer or seller- they will have closed out before the market forces their hand.
I have a rule of thumb for selling naked options- if premium trebles it's time to adjust. It has thus far served me well, though I will confess to premium trebling+5%, and the market then reversing in my favour. It's not 100% rigid but it's not an exact science.
So why oh why do major institutions try to make trading an exact science with their armies of quants and super computers?
I don't see them making the big bucks-that seems to be done by the 'barrow boy' traders

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