I was hoping to sell some 4100 calls at >50 this morning, and just as I got to the screens, there was a small blip down, with F right at the pivot. I should have taken those calls at 47 and been happy about it,as the market tanked, so I could have bought them back for 20 or so- nice trade, and could have been even better as a combo, buying puts as well as shorting calls. I was not looking for that trade however, and was not entirely convinced the market was headed south.
The market seems to have moved on industrial output numbers which were better than expected although still negative. Sometimes the market wants the 'moon on a stick' and their expectations are wildly unrealistic. So the numbers were better, the market tanked. they claim to be forward looking-if that were the case they would ignore daily news, and the markets would not look like the Himalayas. Too many clever people trying to outsmart each other makes the market a dumb animal, so when it outsmarts me, I take exception.
Tuesday, 7 April 2009
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