Monday, 9 March 2009

Optimism

I get quite  a few trading emails and one British one has video clips from various pundits. I like David Linton's TA but most of the other stuff is worth a quick look.The latest was about the low oil price giving a shot in the arm to the world's economy and it would be the equivalent of  +2.7% of global gdp. This assumes a great many things- not least of which that demand will be as high as in the past. With plummeting orders, manufacturing is in the toilet retailers are struggling and just about everyone is scraping by, with little prospect of improvement. Most of these pundits are sales people and they don't have a well informed opinion, they just base it on a few favorable metrics.
However, if there are cheap opportunities to go long, with reward at least 5 x risk, then looking ahead to April I might even consider some call spreads. With that in mind- I'm watching 3850/3900 call spread and would consider a buy at 9-currently 7-12.

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